Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the country and caused chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. Both writes two pieces that aim for neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over identity markers, levies, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has has something to gain from the alternative arguments."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
