Seven years ago, a mere eight words to energize a Labour conference demonstrating the party was falling out of love with its then leader. While not exactly soaring oratory, the phrase met with rapturous applause as delegates rose in spontaneous acclamation.
When the noise subsided, Keir Starmer, stood at the podium, visibly startled. He wasn't really accustomed to his speeches producing such a reaction. All he had said was: "We are not excluding staying in the EU". Context, however, is key.
In that darkly divisive time in 2018, straying from the prepared script like this was always going to be seen as laying down the gauntlet to the party leader, who was trying to prioritise Brexit voters in key constituencies above the pro-European instincts within Labour. With that single address, this seemingly cautious shadow Brexit secretary underwent a transformation – if only for a while – into a risk-taker who would stand up for the party's base against the leadership he later succeeded.
The Evolution of Stance and Closed Debates
In the years since, much has happened, not least to Starmer himself. An early move upon assuming leadership in 2020 was to declare the EU question was resolved by the previous year’s national vote. During the most recent campaign, he repeatedly emphasised unbreakable pledge commitments that ruled out rejoining the European Union or its core structures.
Like his predecessor, the PM's approach has been to pursue Brexit-y voters in target constituencies, even if polling evidence indicates many of them have died or changed their minds.
Pressure Building on Europe
However, it’s now Starmer is now to be an embattled party leader. And, if EU relations is no longer the central crisis of British politics, the cap that has been kept firmly shut since Brexit is starting to loosen once more.
The Prime Minister and Chancellor have intensified the rhetoric regarding the damage caused by Brexit has inflicted on Britain's economic standing. This serves as an effective tool to criticize the Reform UK leader, who now rarely mentions how leaving the EU was his primary goal and is still his sole political accomplishment.
Nevertheless, the extent of the economic harm, reportedly has resulted in a national economy that is between 6% and 8% smaller than if it were still in the EU, towers over the minor adjustments so far offered by ministers. The PM's much-touted relationship reset negotiated with the EU in 2024 provides gains quantified in low decimal points.
Cabinet Divergence and Bolder Ideas
The chancellor is among those attempting to bypass entrenched interior ministry opposition to an expansive version designed to boost growth youth mobility scheme by which young people can move between Britain and Europe for work or study.
The deputy prime minister muses openly regarding the clear advantages of joining an EU customs pact, while a dozen Labour MPs, including the chair of the Treasury select committee, recently supported an opposition proposal on joining one.
Although Nick Thomas-Symonds, the minister in charge of EU policy, who is now attending all cabinet sessions, insists the red lines remain unchanged, there are ways these could be bypassed. One idea involves declaring the commencement of talks immediately on a much bolder deal, for inclusion in the following election platform, with implementation only if securing a new electoral mandate.
The Prime Minister's Fundamental Doubts
However, Starmer has lately been damping it all down on the idea by warning a return to an EU customs arrangement could undermine the trade pacts with America, which he views as signature achievements of his premiership.
It is understood that Starmer's doubts run even deeper, stemming from several key concerns.
- First, he believes any customs union agreement is now significantly more difficult because his ministers busily de-aligning from EU regulations across a range of policy areas, like environmental standards.
- Second, the exorbitant price set for the UK for entry into a European defense initiative and the subsequent collapse in talks has convinced UK negotiators that European nations have little interest in cutting special deals with Britain than in proving that Brexit does not work.
- Thirdly, the new US national security strategy, praised by Moscow, is viewed by key advisors in Downing Street as grounds for Britain to maintain distance from the EU.
A Bizarre Strategy and Strategic Calculations
This strange and concerning American strategy paper asserts Europe faces cultural extinction due to Muslim migration. It includes a single mention to Britain, found on a suggestion that the US government may interfere in British politics to encourage the growth of “patriotic” parties.
But, far from concluding that this makes America an unreliable partner, ministers reportedly fear that deeper EU integration would destabilise geopolitics further by endangering precarious American backing for Ukraine, Nato and much more besides.
Leadership Speculation & The Ghost of 2018
This situation returns us to the conference of 2018. Starmer has always said that address was not a pitch to become leader but simply an attempt to preserve the “option” of remain in a future vote. In fact, in those days, he still supported a “bespoke customs union deal” similar to the one he currently seems to reject.
Observers within the Prime Minister's office note that the Health Secretary, who just about everyone assumes would stand in any leadership election, is part of a clutch of cabinet ministers letting it be known they want to go further regarding the EU.
Staff for the Deputy Prime Minister, another likely contender in a contest for the top job, insist she refuses to comment on her stance regarding a customs pact because it would only “escalate unhelpful speculation”.
The Obvious Risk and A Prudent Reminder
The danger is obvious. Should the PM reject significant moves towards a close relationship, he cedes ground to occupy the space where the overwhelming majority of Labour MPs, members and voters reside.
It would be prudent of him to remember the effect that a short phrase had for him seven years ago. Potential pathways for a major proposal on Europe which the PM ought to consider; he should prise them open personally, rather than letting rivals adopt them as their own.
